Nigeria’s Farm Productivity Crashes to 40-Year Low Amid Rising Insecurity, Climate Challenges

Nigeria’s agricultural sector is grappling with its worst productivity performance in over four decades, as deepening insecurity, erratic climate conditions, and outdated infrastructure continue to cripple growth. This is according to new findings from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), which paints a grim picture of the nation’s food security outlook.

The report, published by NESG’s Industrial Policy Commission (IndPC), shows a steep decline in the sector’s GDP growth—dropping to an average of just 1.2% between 2021 and 2024—the lowest since the 2.9% recorded in the early 1990s. This contrasts sharply with the peak years of 2002 to 2006, when agricultural GDP growth hit 16.7%.

“Agricultural productivity in Nigeria has fallen significantly below global benchmarks, despite a growing population and rising food demand,” the report notes.

For instance:

• Rice yield: Nigeria – 1.9 metric tonnes per hectare (MT/ha); Global average – 4.7 MT/ha

• Wheat yield: Nigeria – 1.1 MT/ha; Global average – 3.7 MT/ha

• Maize yield: Nigeria – 2.0 MT/ha; Global average – 5.9 MT/ha

This yawning productivity gap has forced Nigeria to rely heavily on costly food imports. NESG estimates that the country faces annual shortfalls of 2.4 million tonnes of rice, 5.7 million tonnes of wheat, and 1.1 million tonnes of maize—posing a serious risk to national food security.

Insecurity Driving Farmers Off the Land

“Insecurity is now the single biggest threat to agricultural output,” said MacDonald Ukah, NESG’s thematic lead for agriculture. “Farmers are terrified to visit their farms.”

Across the country, once-thriving farmlands are now abandoned as violence from insurgents, bandits, and armed groups escalates. Many farming communities have been forced to flee, leading to massive losses in investment and productivity. Those who remain often spend heavily on security—hiring private guards or depending on vigilante groups—further increasing the cost of production.

Climate Volatility Making Farming Unpredictable

Climate shocks are compounding the crisis. Irregular rainfall, floods, and prolonged dry spells have disrupted traditional farming calendars. “Weather events are happening more frequently and with greater intensity,” Ukah added, highlighting how climate unpredictability is making farming riskier and yields more erratic.

The Path Forward: A New Food Security Formula

The NESG report calls for a shift towards a “food balance equation” — a strategic framework that prioritizes robust domestic production, supplemented only by imports to bridge shortfalls, while building strategic food reserves.

“Productivity is the principal concern,” the group emphasized, urging that solutions must go beyond policy rhetoric.

What Needs to Be Done

Experts recommend a comprehensive approach to revamp Nigeria’s food system, including:

• Scaling up mechanisation and modern farm technologies

• Strengthening rural security to ensure farmers can return to their land

• Improving access to finance and agricultural insurance

• Expanding storage and processing infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses

According to the NESG, without urgent and sustained intervention, Nigeria risks deepening its food insecurity crisis and missing its development goals. The time to act, they say, is now.