World Bank Says Nigeria’s Growth to Reach 4.4% in 2026–2027

The World Bank has retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.4% for 2027, signalling sustained optimism about the country’s medium-term outlook despite lingering structural challenges.

This projection is contained in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, and aligns with estimates earlier published in its Nigeria Development Update (NDU) in October 2025.

The Bretton Woods institution also upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%, from the 3.7% projection in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, reflecting improving macroeconomic conditions and the early gains of ongoing reforms.

What the World Bank is saying

The World Bank expects Nigeria’s economy to grow at 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027, describing this as the country’s fastest growth pace in more than a decade.

According to the report, the expansion will be driven largely by continued growth in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities.

“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the World Bank noted.

The Bank added that sustained services-sector expansion and improved agricultural output will remain the key pillars supporting economic performance over the forecast period.

It further highlighted that ongoing economic reforms—particularly within the tax system—combined with prudent monetary policy, are expected to support growth and strengthen macroeconomic stability.

“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity.”

According to the Bank, these measures should help improve investor confidence and further tame inflation. It added that higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen Nigeria’s external position.

Why this matters

The World Bank’s outlook reinforces the growing importance of non-oil sectors in Nigeria’s economic recovery, underscoring the gradual impact of diversification efforts aimed at reducing dependence on crude oil exports.

Stronger performance in services and agriculture could support job creation, price stability, and revenue expansion, offering long-term benefits for households and public finances.

For investors and policymakers, the forecast provides measured confidence that recent reforms may begin to deliver tangible results, even as Nigeria continues to navigate structural and macroeconomic vulnerabilities.

What you should know

The World Bank projects that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth will strengthen to 4.3% in 2026, supported by reforms, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation.

Globally, the Bank expects the world economy to remain resilient, with growth easing slightly to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027, an upward revision from its June forecast.

The improved global outlook reflects moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, despite persistent geopolitical and climate risks.

Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.46% year-on-year in real terms in Q3 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).